Births, deaths and population movement
The birth to death ratio allows comparison of local authorities with national level statistics, giving the rate of births to every one death. Bolton's rate has shown a consistently greater number of births than deaths since 2008. The trend data shows a gradual overall decline in the birth to death ratio over the period, highlighting the increase in excess deaths experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. By comparison, there has been consistently more births than deaths across England as a whole, though the national rate, like Bolton, has fallen slightly in recent years.
Number of live births and total fertility rate for Bolton, North West region and England
| Bolton | North West | England | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Live births | Total fertility rate (TFR) | Live births | Total fertility rate (TFR) | Live births | Total fertility rate (TFR) |
| 2017 | 3,703 | 2.05 | 83,882 | 1.79 | 646,794 | 1.76 |
| 2018 | 3,607 | 2.00 | 81,195 | 1.73 | 625,651 | 1.70 |
| 2019 | 3,676 | 2.03 | 80,020 | 1.69 | 610,505 | 1.66 |
| 2020 | 3,583 | 1.98 | 76,329 | 1.61 | 585,195 | 1.59 |
| 2021 | 3,453 | 1.79 | 78,127 | 1.59 | 595,948 | 1.55 |
| 2022 | 3,559 | 1.85 | 76,399 | 1.53 | 577,046 | 1.49 |
In 2022, there were 3,559 live births in Bolton. Bolton’s total fertility rate (1.85) is the second highest in Greater Manchester, meaning maternity and health visiting services are under ongoing demand. Over the past 10 years, births in Bolton have remained relatively stable aside from a “mini baby boom” during 2012.
Bolton’s previously high birth rate has contributed to an increased number of young people, which is projected to affect the numbers of young people in secondary school. As the number of births are gradually reducing, this demand is likely to also reduce in the future.
The chart above illustrates the projected number of births in Bolton between 2019 and 2041. This demonstrates the increase in births post-2030 that is predicted to occur as a result of the high number of children born over the last decade becoming young adults and having children themselves.